More than six months ago I started a betting method for which I had high expectations, but unfortunately it has just finished with very poor results. It took 6 months and a bit more than 500 bets to lose my entire bank, with every bet of 2% of my bankroll. Unfortunately I could not find the correct method to play in a betting model which started quite promising at the beginning.
It’s about playing on Asian handicap with the odds around evens against the big favorites in soccer matches. I chose matches at which the odds for a win for the favorite were below 1.2. My idea was that since people generally like to bet for the big favorites, the bookies will start at some point to increase the underdog’s odds. Accordingly, I thought to take advantage of this by betting against the favorites a few hours before the match, so enough people had been able to make their bets and I would have the increased odds for the underdogs.
When I tried this betting method on a paper trial I had profit of 26% after the first 100 matches. This made me hopeful and I started to bet with real money. It was a complete disappointment since even for a moment I couldn’t make more than 10% profit and shortly thereafter a constant downfall began.
After the first 100 bet I had 20% loss. When I made 200 bets I added 10% losses. Then I analyzed the results and found that while betting on less popular leagues and teams the performance is many times lower than in the more famous championships. This makes sense, since the popularity leads to a greater number of bets which leads to a reduction in the odds. Indeed, after I started to bet only on the major championships the downfall was slowed, but unfortunately not stopped.
Soon after that I came to the point where it was clear that there are no more chances for turning back, but I continued betting out of curiosity until the end, which came yesterday.
However, I can say that I learned something from these bets. I was able to develop some supporting ideas and despite the loss of money I don’t regret my decision to try this new betting method.
The last few weeks have been extremely successful for my betting. About a month ago I decided to follow a video showing a very simple way of betting. In this video it was explained that if you want to be successful in your betting, all you have to do is just find a maximum two matches each day on which to bet. No more than two. It can be less, but not more. The passion for making more and more betting predictions will simply increase the chances for losing.
Basically in all my betting methods I try to achieve 20% profit. If I reach it, then I accept that my trial is successful and I take the profits and start from the beginning. The idea, of course, is in a certain stage to refund the investment and start playing only with money earned from the bookmaker.
In less than a month I made 48 bets and I managed twice to reach the limit of 20% profit. In other words my exact profit from the very beginning is 44%. I need two more steps and I can return my investments at 100%.
In my betting I am focused on under/over betting options by searching for matches based on pure statistics. It is clear that there is no way for me to know teams from Qatar and Norway’s third division. This is why I depend on numbers. I search for matches which on h2h and on the last 10 matches are all under or over. Also I need bookmakers to offer odds close to evens for this bets. If I find some I bet on it.
It is similar with the second type of betting I do – Asian Handicap winner.
However, the most profitable way of betting that I do is on draws. From my last 27 bet – I have bet nine times on draws and five of them were successful. This is exactly 55.5% success rate, which is a super result.
I am looking for my draw predictions in a very simple and elementary way. I search through all matches from today’s betting coupon and look for these where either one or both opponents have three consecutive draws in their last three matches. Another option is if both teams have three draws in their last three h2h matches. When I see such a match, I check it carefully and if I like it I bet on it.
So far successfully. I hope my streak to continue.
Chelsea against Juventus is the match from the second day of the Champions League. Yesterday we saw a great match between the teams of Real Madrid and Manchester City which finished 3-2 for the hosts with five goals in the second half and three in the last five minutes of the match. Today’s show between Chelsea and Juventus will hardly be less exciting.
Both teams play more than well in their Championship matches, as Juventus has three wins of three matches with goal difference of 9:2. Chelsea is with three wins and a draw and goal difference of 8:2. Both teams are leaders in the current standings of the championships of England and Italy. In my opinion there is hardly anything more exciting than the two best teams from the two leading countries in football playing against each other.
However it looks exciting only at a first glance. Knowing the playing philosophy of both teams they will be looking primarily for its defence. This suggests a match with less goals, something that the betting houses have already felt and they are offering odds for an under of only 1.7.
The two teams have met only twice so far and the matches were in the quarter-finals of the Champions League four years ago. In the first match the hosts of Chelsea won by 1-0. The second match finished 2-2 as Juventus led twice, but the guests managed to catch up and eventually moved forward.
In today’s match it is hard for me to find a favourite for the winner. The win can be taken from both sides. Chelsea have some problems in their attack and it was obvious from the shaky play of Torres, who although has scored two goals, has rarely managed to shoot to the opponent’s net. When Eden Hazard is preserved successfully, then the attacks possibilities of Chelsea are reduced almost to minimum. This was seen in their last match against QPR, when the match ended scoreless.
Juventus is a team that can boast with a good enough defence to give the required resistance. As for their chances in attack, they are guests in this match and their efforts will be directed not to lose. That’s why my prediction for this game leans more to bet on under 2.5 goals in the match.
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